Polls show PSOE and Sumar collapsing while PP-Vox bloc nears 200 seats

The latest polling data from Sigma Dos for several outlets's GAD3 paint a bleak picture for the governing coalition. PSOE is expected to win about 103 seats, a loss of 18 compared with the last election, and its vote share has slipped to roughly 25.3%. Sumar trails far behind with an estimated 7.6% of the vote, translating into only nine seats, far fewer than the 31 it secured in July 2023.

Together, PSOE and Sumar would hold just 112 seats, well short of a majority even with support from regional parties. In contrast, the centre-right bloc of Partido Popular and Vox is projected to capture around 200-203 seats, with PP alone at about 135 seats and Vox adding roughly 68 seats, enough for an absolute majority. The polls also show a significant shift of former socialist voters toward the PP, driven by discontent with the government's handling of the economy, leadership, and corruption scandals. Overall, 62.8% of respondents view the coalition government's performance as negative or very negative.