Polls suggest low-turnout Republicans may not rally behind Trump this year
Analyst G. Elliot Morris says recent polling shows Republicans who are unlikely to vote also disapprove of Trump and his policies, casting doubt on the impact of the party’s convention.
G. Elliot Morris aggregated eight Strength In Numbers/Verasight polls, totaling more than 11,000 interviews, to assess Republican voter sentiment ahead of the midterms. The combined “mega-poll” measured approval of Donald Trump, issue priorities, and projected 2024 vote choice. Findings indicate that voters who report low likelihood of voting also express low approval of Trump and his agenda, particularly on deportations, inflation and health care.
Morris argues that the Republican National Committee’s convention in Dallas, dubbed “Trump-O-Palooza,” is unlikely to mobilize these disengaged voters. He warns that the party may face an enthusiasm shortfall relative to Democrats in November. The analysis challenges the strategy of relying on Trump’s presence to boost turnout among the party’s weaker base.
Why it matters
If low-turnout Republicans stay hostile to Trump, the GOP could struggle to close the November voter-turnout gap.
In this story
