Polymarket user wagers $179,000 that U.S.-Iran nuclear talks will collapse by year-end

On Polymarket, the account called “The Spirit of Ukraine,” which holds a 59% win record and sits at rank 68, committed $178,574 to the proposition that the United States and Iran will not reach a nuclear agreement by year-end. This single bet accounts for nearly half of the $15.5 million total volume on the market, where the “No” outcome now carries about an 89.6% implied chance, a sharp decline from the 30% odds seen earlier this month.

The platform’s biggest “Yes” bettor, Wan123, purchased 100,000 contracts worth $100,132. The trader’s lifetime deposits total $7.7 million, with $2.3 million net profit after $1.9 million in losses. The wager follows a recent breakdown of a 60-day cease-fire and statements from Iranian officials about shifting to a fully offensive stance, while U.S. figures have offered conflicting comments on the status of talks.