Prediction Markets and Analysts Flag Texas Senate Race as Highly Competitive
Prediction markets and several forecasters now view the Texas Senate contest between James Talarico and Ken Paxton as a toss-up, despite the state's historic Republican tilt.
Prediction-market platforms Kalshi and Polymarket each list Democrat James Talarico with about a 60 % probability of victory and Republican Attorney General Ken Paxton with roughly 40 %. Both one outlet’ Power Rankings and the Cook Political Report have upgraded the contest from "Lean Republican" to "Toss-Up." Aggregated polling from one outlet puts Talarico at 47.6 % versus Paxton’s 45 %, indicating a tight race. Campaign rhetoric has grown sharper, exemplified by Talarico’s criticism of Paxton’s misspelling of the Texas community Cypress on X. A win for Talarico would mark the first Democratic Senate victory in Texas since 1988, while Paxton, who defeated John Cornyn in the GOP primary, carries the endorsement of President Donald Trump and faces multiple legal controversies.
Why it matters
The shifting odds suggest a rare Democratic opportunity in a traditionally Republican stronghold, potentially reshaping Texas politics.
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