Prediction Markets Favor Trump Critics for Time's Person of the Year

Prediction markets Polymarket and Kalshi have identified New York Mayor Zohran Mamdani as the most likely recipient of Time magazine's Person of the Year honor, each giving him a 36 percent probability. Pope Leo trails with chances of 19 percent on Polymarket and 22 percent on Kalshi. Donald Trump, who initially led the Kalshi odds, now sits at third place with a 13 percent likelihood, while Elon Musk and OpenAI chief Sam Altman hold 12 percent and 8 percent respectively.

Time traditionally announces the award in early to mid-December, keeping the decision secret until the reveal. The markets' betting patterns suggest heightened interest in individuals challenging Trump amid his unpopular war with Iran, strict immigration stance, and economic pressures. Mamdani, a Democratic Socialist, has both courted and criticized Trump, receiving harsh labels from the president. Pope Leo has repeatedly condemned Trump’s policies, especially regarding migrants and the Iran war, without always naming him directly.