Putin may probe NATO's resolve within months, Czech intelligence warns

Czech domestic intelligence director Michal Koudelka warned that Vladimir Putin could attempt to test NATO’s cohesion in a timeframe of “months, not years,” using limited strikes, fabricated provocations or an extensive influence operation. His assessment aligns with recent statements from Finland’s president Alexander Stubb, Poland’s prime minister Donald Tusk and France’s president Emmanuel Macron, who all indicated that Russia appears to be planning a serious move.

Security scholar Henri Vanhanen added that Russia does not have to wait for full readiness against the whole alliance before launching smaller operations, which could include the tactics Koudelka described. Analysts speculate potential targets range from the Baltic states—particularly Estonia or Finland—to broader efforts to create discord among NATO members. Former Lithuanian defence minister Dovilė Šakalienė called for NATO to define clear criteria for when Russian sabotage crosses the threshold of collective defence under Article 5.

Latvia’s security service chief Normunds Mežviets said no immediate strike signs are evident, but Moscow may be planning more deliberate actions in Europe, though their exact nature remains unclear. Estonia’s senior foreign ministry official Jonatan Vseviov urged calm, urging citizens to support Ukraine while awaiting further developments.