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Quebec election dynamics shift as trade talks collapse and parties reshuffle

The upcoming Quebec vote, once seen as a sure win for the Parti Quebecois, has become unpredictable after the Canada-U.S. trade negotiations fell apart.

Quebecers are set to vote in just over a month, and the race that once appeared locked for the Parti Quebecois has been upended. The party, which had dominated polls for three years on a promise to hold a new independence referendum, saw its lead evaporate after the Canada-U.S. trade talks collapsed. This development boosted the governing Coalition Avenir Quebec from a distant fourth to a serious challenger.

In response, the PQ shelved its referendum timetable until after Donald Trump departs the White House, while the U.S. commerce secretary alleged that Mark Carney was manufacturing a French-language controversy to block sovereigntist gains. Paul Journet, a columnist for La Presse, breaks down what these shifts mean for the province’s political future and the broader Canadian landscape.

Why it matters

The election could reshape Quebec's stance on sovereignty and affect Canada-U.S. relations.

In this story

Quebec electionparti quebecoiscoalition avenir quebectrade talks collapsesovereignty referendumU.S. commerce secretaryMark CarneyDonald Trumppolitical shift
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