RBI may lift policy rate to 5.50% as inflation spreads, poll suggests

A poll of 53 economists shows a slim majority anticipating that the Reserve Bank of India will raise its policy rate by at least 25 basis points in October, potentially reaching 5.50%. The shift reflects inflation that is tracking roughly 20 basis points higher than the RBI's own forecast and appears to be broadening across categories. Commentators such as Indranil Pan of Yes Bank argue the RBI must act because other major central banks, including the U.S. Federal Reserve, are already tightening.

Sanjay Malhotra has signaled support for a rate increase if inflationary pressures expand, while Abhishek Upadhyay of ICICI Securities Primary Dealership expects the hike to begin this month. The poll marks a reversal from a previous survey that expected rates to stay unchanged until March next year. Despite expectations of near-term hikes, median forecasts keep the policy rate at 5.75% until at least mid-2028, indicating one of the shallowest tightening cycles in a decade.