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Record early voting surge highlights tight Talarico-Paxton Senate showdown in Texas

Early voting in Texas has surged as Democrat James Talarico and Republican Ken Paxton vie for a U.S. Senate seat, prompting intense voter mobilization.

Since early voting began on October 19, Texas has seen an unprecedented level of participation, with millions of voters submitting in-person or mail ballots across the state. Experts attribute the surge to the belief that the U.S. Senate race between Democrat James Talarico and Republican Attorney General Ken Paxton is a genuine toss-up, prompting both parties and outside groups to intensify voter outreach. County-level early-vote counts reveal the highest-turnout areas, such as Harris County with over six hundred thousand votes and Dallas County with more than three hundred thousand.

Polling aggregates place the candidates within a narrow margin, with several surveys showing Talarico holding a slight lead of a few points. The competitive environment is expected to further energize Republican supporters while Democrats may benefit from higher enthusiasm, according to political analysts. Campaigns have also attracted significant outside financial backing, though specific spending figures are not disclosed in this report.

Why it matters

The unprecedented early-vote turnout could determine whether Democrats break a 32-year statewide election drought in Texas.

How this story developed

  1. Sep 30 Ken Paxton says Trump-led convention hurt his Senate bid
  2. Oct 13 Texas polls show Democrat James Talarico ahead of Ken Paxton.
  3. Oct 15 JD Vance publicly backs Ken Paxton and attacks James Talarico's sex‑education stance.
  4. Oct 16 Total spending on Republican‑aligned committees and organizations is reported at $366 million.
  5. Oct 16 Donald Trump will travel to Georgia on Friday to campaign alongside Republican Senate and governor candidates, underscoring both party unity and internal divisions.
  6. Oct 21 Trump scheduled a Texas rally on Oct 27 and began a bus tour to boost Paxton’s campaign.
  7. Oct 21 Trump announced a $5,000 payment to each adult contingent on Republican control of Congress.
  8. Oct 21 Talarico released new TV ads focusing on border security and data‑center tax breaks.
  9. Oct 22 The Department of Justice filed a lawsuit seeking to prevent Alaska from certifying its Senate results if incumbent Dan Sullivan loses, arguing that a challenger sharing his name was entered to mislead voters.
  10. Oct 23 Musk injected $77 million into America PAC in early October, raising his total contributions for the cycle.
  11. Oct 23 Alaska Supreme Court upheld Daniel J. Sullivan’s placement on the ballot after a lower‑court ruling.
  12. Oct 24 Brown’s candidacy adds a third‑party perspective to the Texas Senate contest.
  13. Oct 24 Voters and advocacy groups filed a motion to dismiss the Justice Department’s complaint.
  14. Oct 26 Trump’s Friday rally in Dalton was set for 3 p.m. EDT.

In this story

early votingTexas Senate raceJames TalaricoKen Paxtonvoter mobilizationpollingrecord turnout
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