Record Pacific Hurricane Season Fueled by Strong El Niño Threatens Mexico and Hawaii
An unusually active Pacific hurricane season, driven by a potent El Niño, has already produced multiple Category 4-5 storms, affecting Mexico’s coast and raising flood fears for Hawaii.
The Pacific hurricane season is shaping up as one of the most intense on record, spurred by an El Niño that began in June and has raised sea-surface temperatures above normal. As a result, the eastern Pacific has already exceeded its typical storm count, with Hurricane Polo fluctuating between Category 4 and 5 as it hit Mexico’s Pacific coast, and Tropical Storm Nola poised to deliver foot-deep rains to Hawaii. University of Miami specialist Brian McNoldy warned the event may become the strongest El Niño ever observed, while NOAA forecaster Matthew Rosencrans noted three Pacific hurricanes have reached Category 5, matching a 2002 record.
The same atmospheric shift is suppressing Atlantic activity, leaving that basin unusually quiet this year. In Hawaii, recent hurricanes Lala and Lowell caused extensive damage, and officials warn that Nola could repeat the pattern, stretching community resources and heightening preparedness fatigue, according to meteorologist John Bravender.
Why it matters
The surge in Pacific storms highlights how a strong El Niño can intensify regional hazards and strain disaster response systems.
How this story developed
- Aug 31 UN warns that a record-breaking El Niño could trigger worldwide extreme weather
- Sep 5 Czech forecasts include a possible rapid temperature rise to around 30 °C early next week.
- Sep 7 Britain announced cuts of more than 80 % to bilateral aid in eight African states.
- Sep 7 UK models show a higher likelihood of stormier, wetter conditions during autumn and winter.
- Sep 9 A brief spell of 27‑28 °C heat is expected in southeast England on Sunday.
- Sep 9 The contiguous United States experienced its warmest June-August period on record, with an average temperature of 74.4°F, according to NOAA.
- Sep 10 August 2026 set a new all‑time monthly heat record and drought drove the two biggest western water reservoirs to their lowest historic levels.
- Sep 13 Forecasts now show showers spreading across the west and east of the UK by Tuesday, following the brief heat spike.
- Sep 20 New forecasts show London reaching about 24 °C by Monday and showers expected in Manchester from Thursday.
- Sep 21 The system, now classified as a hurricane, is positioned about 270 miles south-southeast of Manzanillo and 190 miles south-southwest of Zihuatanejo, with sustained winds of 80 mph. Forecasts suggest it could reach major-hurricane strength by Tuesday and maintain a trajectory offshore while dumping 4-8 inches of rain across Guerrero and Michoacan through Thursday. Tourist hubs such as Acapulco, Puerto Vallarta and Guadalajara may experience rough seas and gusty conditions, and the moisture could trigger flash-flood threats in the U.S. Southwest later in the week.
- Sep 23 Polo intensified to Category 5 with maximum sustained winds of 175 mph.
- Sep 23 The study now includes regional death estimates for India, the Sahel, Southeast Asia and Indonesia.
- Sep 24 Authorities opened shelters and deployed thousands of military and Red Cross personnel to assist affected communities.
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