Report warns Alberta’s split from Canada would cost billions and create long-term uncertainty
A University of Calgary study finds that Alberta separating from Canada would require $50-$170 billion over five years and bring unpredictable long-term economic risks.
The University of Calgary School of Public Policy released a report commissioned by Alberta’s government assessing the financial implications of provincial independence. It estimates that establishing a new country would require $50-$170 billion during the first five years, with annual costs of $25-$50 billion thereafter, echoing Premier Danielle Smith’s earlier $400 billion estimate. The analysis presents a “smooth” scenario with swift, favorable negotiations and a “difficult” scenario involving protracted, unfavorable talks, both highlighting substantial short-term costs and long-term uncertainty.
While a post-transition economy could improve, the report warns the opposite outcome is also possible. Finance Minister Jason Nixon reiterated the government’s stance supporting a strong Alberta within a united Canada.
