Report warns CUSMA collapse could cost hundreds of thousands of jobs and trillions in GDP

A new Oxford Economics study says ending CUSMA would erase hundreds of thousands of jobs and billions of dollars in economic output for the United States and Canada.

Oxford Economics prepared a report for the Canadian American Business Council that models three possible outcomes of the ongoing CUSMA talks. Keeping tariffs unchanged serves as a baseline, while a collapse of the agreement would eliminate an estimated 214,000 American and 102,000 Canadian jobs and reduce U.S. GDP by $1.04 trillion and Canadian GDP by $271 billion by 2035. Conversely, a successfully renegotiated pact could create about 137,000 U.S. and 98,000 Canadian jobs and boost disposable income while tempering inflation.

The worst-case scenario would hit manufacturing sectors most, especially auto, wood and metal producers in states such as Iowa, Michigan, Kentucky and Alabama, and in Canadian provinces like Quebec and Ontario. With the Aug. 19 deadline for 50 percent tariffs looming, Canadian Trade Minister Dominic LeBlanc and U.S. Trade Representative Jamieson Greer are meeting to present a possible deal to President Donald Trump. Beth Burke, CEO of the Canadian American Business Council, emphasized the stakes for affordability and stability on both sides of the border.