Republicans confront slipping polls and internal splits as midterms loom 45 days away
With just 45 days before the November 3 midterms, Republicans are seeing worsening poll numbers and growing internal disagreements, casting doubt on their ability to retain Congress and key statewide offices.
As the November 3 midterm elections near, Republicans are confronting a cascade of warning signs that threaten their grip on Congress and statewide offices. A Republican-affiliated Harper Polling survey places Democrat Roy Cooper 15 points ahead of Michael Whatley in North Carolina’s open Senate race, and a Siena College/ReconMR poll shows Democrat Gina Hinojosa leading Governor Greg Abbott by four points. GOP senators, including John Cornyn, have suggested reallocating funds away from struggling contests in Georgia and North Carolina, reflecting internal anxiety.
Several candidates, such as Rep. Maria Elvira Salazar and Attorney General Kris Kobach, are publicly distancing themselves from Donald Trump as his approval among conservatives falls to 76 percent. Democratic forecasters now view several traditionally Republican House districts as toss-ups, and Senate models give Democrats a narrow edge. Party officials stress that voter turnout, especially among the base, will be decisive in determining whether Republicans can preserve their Senate majority and limit House losses.
Why it matters
Republican poll deficits and internal splits could determine which party controls Congress after the midterms.
How this story developed
- Aug 17 Midterm outlook shifts as key Senate and governor contests turn competitive
- Sep 1 Lone Star Liberty PAC committed $15 million to a new television advertising campaign for Paxton.
- Sep 1 Speaker Mike Johnson said he met with Elon Musk in an effort to secure financial support for Republican candidates ahead of the midterm elections.
- Sep 2 A poll shows Talarico at 44.0% and Paxton at 43.4% among likely voters.
- Sep 4 The America PAC filing listed independent expenditures in multiple 2026 races.
- Sep 7 MAGA Inc. filed an FEC report showing a new advertising purchase for the Texas Senate contest.
- Sep 10 Donald Trump announced a promise to give every American adult a $5,000 payment if Republicans keep the House and Senate, a plan that would require congressional approval and cost over $1 trillion.
- Sep 10 Several GOP lawmakers publicly questioned the feasibility and fiscal impact of the dividend.
- Sep 11 Texas Democratic gubernatorial candidate Gina Hinojosa voiced support for a universal $5,000 payout while insisting it should not be conditioned on the midterm results.
- Sep 11 Analysts reclassified the contest as a toss‑up with Talarico outspending Paxton by roughly seven‑fold.
- Sep 13 Senator John Cornyn publicly rebuked Bo French, the Republican nominee for Texas Railroad Commissioner, after French posted a racially charged comment about South Asian students at a University of Texas football game.
- Sep 14 Rep. Mike Lawler said a funding source must be identified for the proposed payout.
- Sep 18 Cornyn has not yet decided whether to support the Democratic challenger or abstain.
- Sep 18 Donald Trump publicly endorsed Ken Paxton for the Senate.
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