Reserve Bank minutes and jobs data to reveal impact of recent rate hikes

In September the Reserve Bank unanimously lifted the cash rate to 4.6%, a more decisive step than many anticipated. The minutes from that meeting, due Tuesday, are expected to detail the factors behind the decision, including concerns about the Middle East conflict and demand. August saw the unemployment rate climb to 4.6%, the highest since November 2021 and above the bank's own projection, while the participation rate rose to 67.1%, near a record level.

Westpac economist Ryan Wells expects September's labour force survey to show employment growth of about 20,000 jobs, half of August's increase, keeping unemployment steady. Payroll data from Employment Hero indicates a 0.8% hiring rebound in September but a drop in annual wage growth from 4.5% to 2.2%. NAB's business confidence survey, also released Tuesday, will add further insight into hiring intentions, as markets watch the data alongside U.S. earnings and inflation releases.