Rethinking Risk: From Prediction to Adaptive Resilience in Uncertain Times

The World Economic Forum’s latest outlook to 2035 highlights that uncertainty is becoming structural rather than episodic, with just 10% of surveyed chief risk officers describing their firms as highly prepared for non-modelled threats. The piece explains that overlapping challenges—geopolitical fragmentation, cyber insecurity, climate volatility, technological disruption and social polarisation—render traditional risk registers obsolete.

It stresses that resilience now means more than bouncing back; it requires rapid interpretation of change, decision-making under uncertainty, and the ability to pivot without losing strategic focus. Building such resilience involves continuous scanning for weak signals, cross-functional involvement, testing assumptions early, and maintaining budgetary and operational flexibility. While risk registers and scenario planning remain useful, they should not be mistaken for crystal-ball predictions. The ultimate goal is an organization that can move effectively whatever the next disruption may be.