Right-wing parties retain absolute-majority lead in snap-election poll

A 40dB flash poll of 800 online interviews, carried out between the announcement of the early election and the death of Maricarmen Abascal, indicates that the PP and Vox together command over half of the electorate, securing an absolute majority in the Congress. The PP’s projected seat range is between 123 and 140, while Vox is expected to obtain between 63 and 74 seats, together guaranteeing at least 186 seats. The PSOE shows a modest increase, with its seat estimate moving to a range of 105-117, but it remains well short of the right-wing bloc.

Smaller left-wing formations, including Sumar and the party led by Irene Montero, see their combined vote share fall below 8%, and their seat projections drop sharply. Even a hypothetical unified left front would only raise its vote share to under 10% and secure at most 19 seats, leaving the right’s majority untouched.