Rising $40 trillion U.S. debt could trigger stagflation and fiscal crisis, experts warn

The United States national debt has now topped $40 trillion, prompting warnings from economists that a fiscal crisis could soon emerge, pairing runaway inflation with higher unemployment. Former Representative Carolyn Bourdeaux, now leading the Concord Coalition, describes a feedback loop where issuing more debt or printing money pushes rates up, which in turn forces further borrowing, risking stagflation.

The Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget outlines multiple crisis pathways—including financial panic, inflation spikes, and default—that could occur together, while the Congressional Budget Office projects debt to hit 101 % of GDP this year and 175 % by 2056. Analysts such as David Ditch stress that rising borrowing costs would tighten credit for consumers and businesses, potentially curbing job growth. They argue that only decisive budget balancing—through spending cuts or revenue increases—can prevent the scenario, though political resistance makes such measures unlikely.