Rising diesel costs from Trump’s Iran war could hurt rural voters before midterms

Diesel fuel costs have climbed to an average of $5.60 per gallon, driven by President Donald Trump’s war on Iran, disruptions in Russian production and tightening refinery capacity. The rise outpaces gasoline and is hitting rural sectors—farmers, trucking firms and winter-heating users—just weeks before the midterm elections, potentially undermining Republican support. Experts say the shortage will be felt most during harvest and holiday supply runs, with states like Maine and Alaska facing higher heating-oil bills.

U.S. refineries are operating at 97.4 percent of capacity, some delaying maintenance, while a looming Gulf-Coast hurricane threatens further shutdowns. With limited policy options and export limits in place, analysts suggest only a recession could bring diesel prices down.