Rising gas prices and Iran conflict erode GOP House lead, Senate at risk
High fuel costs, the ongoing Iran war and waning Trump support are narrowing the Republican edge in the House and putting the Senate majority in jeopardy.
Analysts note that soaring gas prices, the lingering Iran war and growing voter discontent with Donald Trump are squeezing Republican prospects in both chambers. Larry Sabato’s latest model puts Democrats at 208 House seats, Republicans at 203 and 22 competitive races, after eight contests moved toward the Dems. In the Senate, a University of Virginia political scientist still shows a narrow GOP lead of 48-47, but Kalshi markets now give Democrats a 58% chance of flipping the chamber.
Recent polls, including a Marquette Law School survey, show a 13-point generic-party advantage for Democrats and only 21% approval for Trump on inflation. Despite the headwinds, the National Republican Congressional Committee leads Democratic fundraising by $13 million, and GOP super-PACs are spending heavily in key states such as Texas.
Why it matters
The shifting odds could determine which party controls Congress and shapes U.S. policy on the economy and foreign affairs.
How this story developed
- Sep 16 House adjourns early, postponing impeachment vote and AI debate until post-midterms
- Sep 17 Mike Johnson shifted Thursday’s agenda, delaying both the impeachment vote and the AI legislation.
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