Rising Russian gray-zone tactics push NATO to reinforce Baltic defenses

Over the past years Russia has conducted a shadow campaign of sabotage, GPS jamming and other gray-zone measures that fall short of open warfare, but recent incidents—most notably a botched drone attack at Germany’s Leipzig airport—show a marked escalation. These provocations serve both to intimidate and to gauge the West’s response, potentially buying Moscow time for a larger offensive. Experts caution that Russia may soon try to capture a sliver of NATO territory, with Estonia’s Narva and Latvia’s Daugavpils identified as likely targets because of their ethnic Russian majorities and proximity to Russian borders.

A successful seizure would cast doubt on the reliability of Article 5 and could fracture the alliance supporting Ukraine. To prevent such a scenario, the United States is advised to halt any troop withdrawals from Europe, boost NATO deployments in the Baltics, and sustain robust aid to Ukraine, while European nations should assume greater responsibility for their own defense.