Rising Treasury yields threaten Trump’s midterm prospects, say analysts and candidates

Abdul El-Sayed, a former epidemiologist now running as the Democratic Senate candidate in Michigan, posted on X that the ongoing bond market decline is a warning sign for President Donald Trump’s re-election bid, arguing that the administration is seeking a short-term boost at the expense of long-term affordability. Economists explain that after years of low rates, the U.S. and other Western economies are experiencing a rapid rise in Treasury yields, with the benchmark 10-year yield climbing above 4.8% - its highest since October 2023.

Scholars such as Robin Brooks and Stephen Kaplan warn that higher borrowing costs quickly affect household balance sheets and can influence electoral outcomes, especially when voters notice rising mortgage rates and reduced hiring. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent has announced buybacks and a shift to short-term financing, while also claiming the economy remains strong and that rates will fall after the Iran conflict. Yet a recent poll found nearly half of voters cite cost of living as their top issue, and 71% disapprove of Trump’s handling of it, underscoring the political risk posed by the bond market’s “check” on policy.