Rising violence in Bahia threatens Lula's hold on key election state

Evilásio Santos da Silveira Júnior, a 33-year-old Salvador resident, died after being shot in an abandoned favela house, with police describing the incident as a clash between rival drug factions. His sister, Magnólia Nascimento, rejects the police version and claims the killing was random and unjustified. Bahia now records five of the nation’s ten most lethal cities, and Salvador’s homicide rate stands at nearly 53 deaths per 100,000 people, according to 2024 data.

The surge in organized-crime violence has become a central issue in the upcoming presidential election, where Lula seeks to maintain his stronghold after winning 72% of the vote in 2022, while Flávio Bolsonaro promotes tougher prison construction and a hard-on-crime stance. Lula has responded by promising a new public-security ministry and additional federal funding to combat gangs, but critics argue his Workers’ Party has not reduced police excesses or drug flows. Voters in the 11-million-strong state are watching closely to see whether security concerns will shift their support.