Romanian real wages edge up in July as inflation eases

July's data show a small rise in Romania's average net wage, helped by an increase in the legal minimum wage, which reduced the real-wage contraction to 2.5% year over year—the best figure in a year. Manufacturing salaries jumped 7.8% compared with the same month last year, suggesting a sector not affected by the public-sector wage freeze. Consumer-price inflation continued to fall, moving from 10.4% in June to 8.2% in July and reaching 6.2% in August, though further disinflation is expected to slow.

Experts caution that real wage growth will likely stay negative through the end of the year, limiting household spending and overall economic growth. The central bank projects inflation around 3.4% by the end of 2027, while Erste Research forecasts 4.3% by next year. Nominal wage hikes in the public sector may resume in January 2027 after a two-year freeze, but employer sentiment remains cautious.