Rupee likely to hover near 95.20-95.30 as volatility persists

On Monday the Indian rupee opened at 95.82 per US dollar and hovered around 95.78, following a week of sharp fluctuations that peaked at 96.10. Currency specialists warn that any sustained breach of the 96 level could trigger further declines, but they see a higher likelihood of the rupee consolidating near 95.20-95.30 in the near term. Ongoing Middle East tensions and the prospect of US tariff measures on India are identified as primary sources of volatility.

RBI is expected to keep intervening to limit speculative pressure, especially as a potential bank strike from 28-30 September and a holiday on 2 October may leave only one trading day on 1 October. Analysts also note that lower crude prices have offered some relief, though the rupee remains sensitive to oil, global yields and foreign portfolio flows.