Russia holds first post-invasion Duma election amid doubts over fairness

Russia’s weekend State Duma election marks the first parliamentary poll held after the 2022 invasion of Ukraine, and officials anticipate a predetermined outcome favoring United Russia, which currently holds 310 of the 450 seats. To preserve its super-majority, the party needs at least 300 mandates, a target it is expected to achieve. Alongside United Russia, the Communist Party of the Russian Federation, the Liberal Democratic Party, Just Russia and New People are likely to secure representation, all broadly aligning with the Kremlin’s war stance.

Critics, including foreign governments and democracy-monitoring NGOs, have condemned the election as neither free nor fair, a charge Russian authorities reject as unfounded. The sole registered anti-war party, Yabloko, was excluded after the Russian Supreme Court ordered its removal from the ballot following a complaint by the pro-Kremlin Rodina party, which accused Yabloko of copyright violations, foreign funding and extremism. Political analyst Cătălin Buciumeanu argues the vote serves four Kremlin objectives: internal legitimacy, mobilising public support for the war, vetting regional elites, and signalling resilience to the West, while noting that genuine electoral competition remains blocked.