Russia's cheap jet drones outpace NATO's slow procurement, warns Norwegian defence analyst

Russia’s defence industry has swiftly introduced a new generation of inexpensive, jet-propelled drones and missiles, highlighted by the Geran-5 which can travel up to 600 km/h, carry a 90-kg warhead and strike targets a thousand kilometres away. According to Tormod Heier, a professor of military strategy at Stabsskolen, the rapid adaptation of Iranian-designed Shahed drones into the Geran-5 blurs the line between cruise missiles and propeller-driven UAVs, challenging NATO’s ability to intercept them.

He criticises NATO’s reliance on a few large defence contractors and lengthy acquisition cycles, noting that Russia can now produce several thousand drones each month, while NATO struggles to increase output of costly systems like Patriot missiles. He also highlights Russia’s dependence on Chinese components for engines and electronics, raising concerns about supply-chain vulnerability. Heier warns that if Russia can out-produce and out-price NATO, the alliance’s deterrence credibility, especially in the Baltic and Nordic regions, could erode. He suggests tighter feedback loops between front-line troops and defence manufacturers to shorten development times, a step especially vital for smaller NATO members.