Saudi nuclear ambitions could shift to China if U.S. deal stalls

Saudi Arabia intends to install roughly 35 GW of nuclear generation to achieve Vision 2030’s goal of replacing oil-fired plants with gas and renewables, a capacity more than five times the UAE’s Barakah complex. The United States has not finalized a Section 123 nuclear cooperation pact that would prohibit fuel enrichment and reprocessing, leaving the kingdom free to consider other partners. China, having built a competitive nuclear supply chain using U.S. technology, is positioned to offer reactors with minimal safeguards, giving Riyadh leverage against Washington.

The drive is fueled by regional rivalry, fears of an Iranian nuclear weapon, and the option of acquiring a bomb via Pakistan. The author recommends the U.S. support a civilian nuclear program that adheres to the IAEA Additional Protocol while avoiding unrealistic demands, using the negotiations to limit Chinese influence in the Gulf.