Seven House districts reclassified, nudging the race toward Democratic advantage

Inside Elections updated its 2026 House race outlook, reclassifying seven districts in ways that favor the Democratic Party. California's 21st District, represented by Jim Costa, was upgraded to solid Democratic, removing it from the competitive list. Open GOP seats in Kentucky's 6th, Nevada's 2nd and South Carolina's 1st shifted from solid Republican to likely Republican, while two Republican-held districts—Colorado's 5th and Texas's 15th—became slightly less secure for the GOP.

Conversely, two Democratic districts, California's 45th and New Jersey's 9th, moved down the list of potential Republican takeovers. Overall, the firm now projects Democrats gaining between two and ten seats, enough for a majority if they capture a handful of toss-up races. The adjustments come amid ongoing redistricting effects and highlight the narrow margin needed for Democrats to control the chamber.