Six months into US-Israel strikes on Iran: political fallout, economic strain and lingering conflict

Half a year after the United States and Israel launched strikes on Iran, the confrontation has settled into a deadlock that threatens President Trump's re-election prospects, with his approval rating dropping to 33% and public support for the war at roughly 31%. The disruption of the Strait of Hormuz has pushed oil prices upward, yet the International Monetary Fund now projects global growth at 3.0%, only slightly below its earlier forecast.

Iran’s forces have suffered substantial losses, including many naval vessels and a large portion of its air-defense network, but the country still possesses drones, missiles and the ability to target shipping and U.S. assets. The war has deepened Iran’s economic crisis, with food inflation reaching 128% year-on-year, and has intensified security concerns across the Middle East, affecting Gulf allies and raising insurance costs. Meanwhile, the United States is shifting from direct strikes to economic pressure, as Secretary of State Marco Rubio indicated no new attacks are planned for now.