South Korea forecasts modest 0.38% GDP boost over decade if CPTPP accession proceeds

South Korea's Ministry of Trade, Industry and Resources released a projection that CPTPP membership would add 0.38 percentage points to the nation's GDP over the first decade of participation. The assessment, conducted with input from the ministries of Agriculture, Food and Rural Affairs, Oceans and Fisheries, SMEs and Startups, and the Korea Forest Service, examined impacts across macro-economy, manufacturing, SMEs, and primary sectors.

Results suggest manufacturing could gain between 6.3 and 6.7 trillion won each year, whereas agriculture might see a loss of roughly 710 billion won. The CPTPP comprises twelve Indo-Pacific economies, accounting for about 15.2% of global trade in 2019. South Korea announced its intent to pursue membership in 2022 but has not yet filed a formal application due to domestic opposition and diplomatic tensions with Japan. The government is now reviewing the potential benefits for ordinary citizens before deciding on a formal bid.