Southeast Asian nations subtly realign their Taiwan stance amid US uncertainty and China’s rise

Southeast Asian countries are gradually shifting their public positions on Taiwan, reflecting a broader recalibration as the United States appears erratic and China’s influence grows. Indonesia’s navy jointly exercised with China off Taiwan’s east coast, a move later downplayed, while Malaysia’s Anwar Ibrahim suggested a willingness to use force against a secessionist province before retreating to a peaceful stance. Thailand’s statements have evolved from merely recognizing Taiwan as part of China to explicitly opposing any independence call and pledging support for peaceful reunification.

The Philippines, though still adhering to the one-China policy, has softened President Ferdinand Marcos Jr.’s previously hard line against force. In parallel, Indonesia’s President Prabowo Subianto made a fourth visit to Russia, seeking trade links through the Eurasian Economic Union, and Thailand halted 166 data-center projects while rolling out an AI access program. Analysts argue that despite these linguistic tweaks, economic ties with Taiwan remain strong, and most ASEAN states are unlikely to take actions that would provoke a regional conflict.