Space Force faces launch shortfall as SpaceX retires Falcon 9 for Starship

SpaceX plans to retire its Falcon 9 launch vehicle to concentrate on the larger Starship system, a move that threatens the Pentagon’s ability to place advanced satellites in orbit. Falcon 9 handled roughly 85% of U.S. launches in 2025, and the Space Force’s effort to book three National Security Space Launch missions with the company was declined, with no other provider stepping in. Existing alternatives like ULA’s Vulcan have suffered booster problems and were grounded, while Blue Origin’s New Glenn suffered a launch-pad explosion, sidelining it for months.

Emerging companies—Rocket Lab, Stoke Space and Relativity—are developing medium-lift rockets but have not yet completed successful test flights, meaning they cannot meet near-term demand. The service’s acting acquisition executive, Eric Zarybnisky, acknowledged temporary growing pains and expressed optimism that new providers will eventually support national-security launches. Meanwhile, the broader space industry is also feeling pressure as commercial satellite builders scramble for Falcon 9 slots that may disappear after 2028.