SpaceX’s Falcon 9 reshapes global launch market, study shows dramatic U.S. lead
New research reveals that the Falcon 9’s high-frequency, reusable launches have propelled the United States to dominate orbital payload deliveries, overtaking Russia by a large margin.
A joint study by scholars in the United Kingdom and Italy analyzed a database of more than 6,700 orbital launches from 1960 through 2025, focusing on the impact of SpaceX’s Falcon 9 rocket. The research highlights that the vehicle’s rapid turnaround and reusability have allowed SpaceX to command the majority of mass placed in orbit, largely through its Starlink constellation and contracts with rivals such as Amazon, Northrop Grumman, AST Space Mobile and OneWeb.
Historically, payload contributions from the United States and the Soviet Union were closely matched until the 2003 Space Shuttle Columbia accident, after which Russia pulled ahead. The trend reversed in the mid-2010s and accelerated sharply with Falcon 9’s rise, pushing the United States to a share of more than 82% of global payloads by 2024 and to a cumulative total that now exceeds Russia’s by over two-fold since 1990.
Why it matters
The findings illustrate how a single commercial launch system can reshape national space capabilities and global market dynamics.
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