Speaker Johnson blames foreign bettors for Democrat edge in House prediction markets

While touring Pennsylvania to support Republican House candidates, Speaker Mike Johnson asserted that foreign bettors are affecting prediction markets that currently give Democrats a strong chance of winning the chamber. He suggested this external influence contradicts his belief that Republicans will expand their modest majority in November. Market data from Kalshi and Polymarket indicate Democrats holding a high likelihood of securing the House, with trading volumes exceeding $30 million and $10 million respectively.

These platforms allow users worldwide to trade contracts, though verification and residency rules vary and the extent of foreign participation is unclear. The odds align with national polling that shows Democrats ahead in generic congressional ballots. Johnson’s remarks come amid broader debates over whether such markets constitute gambling or regulated financial exchanges.