SSB predicts a rate hike this autumn followed by four cuts through 2028
SSB forecasts that Norges Bank will raise the policy rate this fall and then implement four reductions over the next two years as inflation eases.
SSB's projections show that inflation will stay clearly above the target this year, leading Norges Bank to raise the policy rate once in the autumn. The institute expects four subsequent rate cuts across 2027 and 2028 as price growth declines toward the target level. It anticipates price growth ending the year at 3.2 percent and falling to 2.5 percent by 2027.
Wage growth is forecast at 4.3 percent this year and 3.7 percent next year, outpacing inflation and boosting real purchasing power. Nevertheless, the housing market is not expected to improve markedly, with low new-home sales, high building costs and continued high rates keeping investment low. Overall, household buying power should rise even while rates stay elevated for the next two years.
Why it matters
The outlook signals future monetary policy moves that will affect borrowing costs, wages and the housing market in Norway.
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