Strengthening El Nino and Low Soil Moisture Threaten India’s Winter Crop Yields

A deficient 2026 southwest monsoon, 12.6% below normal, has left extensive areas of India with insufficient soil moisture as the rabi season approaches. Forecasts indicate that El Nino is strengthening and will become very strong by November, coinciding with the main sowing period, raising concerns of delayed planting, reduced acreage and weaker harvests. Soil-moisture assessments show below-average levels in key states such as Karnataka, Maharashtra, Andhra Pradesh and Rajasthan, while 32% of districts recorded deficient rainfall in September.

High September temperatures and reservoir storage that is 1% below long-term averages further strain water availability, particularly for rain-fed crops like gram and jowar, which have limited irrigation coverage. Wheat, largely irrigated, is less vulnerable, but the government is advising states to consider drought-resistant or less water-intensive crops. Officials stress that western disturbances and careful water-management will be crucial to avoid a significant drop in foodgrain production.