Strong El Niño boosts odds that 2026 will top global temperature records
A powerful El Niño is raising the probability that 2026 will become the hottest year on record, according to Berkeley Earth scientists.
Researchers at Berkeley Earth report that an unusually strong El Niño is dramatically increasing the likelihood that 2026 will surpass 2024 as the planet’s hottest year, with odds climbing to 69 % in August. The event is characterized by sea-surface temperatures in the eastern tropical Pacific projected to be roughly 4 °C above average, far exceeding the 2.75 °C anomaly of the 2015-16 El Niño. Scientists say this will produce weather conditions normally seen a decade or more in the future, affecting dry zones like western and southern Africa, Australia and India, while boosting precipitation in the southern United States.
Recent heatwaves have already sparked wildfires in France and Spain and set temperature records in the United States, echoing conditions from the Dust Bowl era. Experts caution that while El Niño can dominate a single year’s temperature ranking, the underlying trend of warming from greenhouse-gas emissions continues unabated. Zeke Hausfather described El Niño as a “giant hammer” striking an already warming climate, with potential economic repercussions for vulnerable regions, including halted anchovy fisheries in Peru.
Why it matters
The forecast signals extreme heat risks worldwide, affecting agriculture, health and economies amid ongoing climate change.
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