Study finds climate change amplified Hurricane Polo more than El Niño
Researchers say global warming added about 10 kph to Hurricane Polo’s winds, while the concurrent El Niño contributed roughly 8 kph.
Scientists from World Weather Attribution and Climate Central published a study on 14 October attributing Hurricane Polo’s unprecedented strength to both climate change and a strong El Niño. Their calculations indicate that anthropogenic warming contributed almost 10 kph to the storm’s peak winds, whereas the El Niño added about 8 kph. The research found that climate change made the storm-fueling environment 23 times more probable, while El Niño increased that likelihood by a factor of 14.
Warm Pacific waters reached 31.2 °C, roughly 2 °C above normal, providing the energy for Polo’s rapid escalation to Category 5 in just 24 hours. The hurricane set a record for the longest duration at Category 5 in the Pacific, holding that status for two-and-a-half days before weakening before landfall in a remote part of Mexico. Experts emphasized that while El Niño is temporary, climate change’s influence will persist and grow as fossil-fuel emissions continue.
Why it matters
The findings highlight that human-driven warming is now a dominant factor in the strength of Pacific hurricanes, raising future risk levels.
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