Study finds climate costs of Rosebank and Jackdaw fields dwarf their economic gains
An analysis estimates that the carbon emissions from the proposed Rosebank and Jackdaw North Sea projects could cause £119 billion-to-£336 billion in global economic damage, far outweighing the £28.7 billion benefit projected for the UK.
A new assessment using peer-reviewed research on temperature-driven economic harm calculates that extracting oil and gas from the Rosebank and Jackdaw fields would inflict between £119 billion and £336 billion in global climate damage over the coming decades, dwarfing the £28.7 billion value the UK expects to gain, according to Adura. The analysis, prepared by Imperial College London’s Luke Hatton and based on production forecasts from the joint Shell-Equinor venture, excludes additional losses from intensified extreme events, sea-level rise and climate-related deaths, suggesting the true figure could be higher.
Experts such as Richard Sulley and Ian Bateman argue that expanding North Sea fossil output is economically irrational and environmentally harmful. The findings have entered the Rosebank consultation process and an academic journal, intensifying debate among the prime minister, Labour MPs, and right-wing parties that support the projects. Government officials maintain that oil and gas remain essential to energy security, but the Climate Change Committee has previously warned that net-zero pathways are more cost-effective.
Why it matters
The study shows that the climate damage from new UK oil fields could far exceed their economic benefit, influencing policy decisions on energy and climate goals.
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