Study predicts 2.5 million fewer senior deaths as climate warms by 2075

According to a new Congressional Budget Office study, climate warming is expected to avert roughly 2.5 million deaths among adults aged 65 and older enrolled in Medicare by the year 2075. The analysis assumes that localities will implement adaptation measures such as greater air-conditioning penetration. It notes that cold days currently generate higher emergency-department use and costs, especially in the coldest and hottest zones, while hot days increase mortality in cooler regions.

When adaptation is factored in, hotter climates are projected to lower emergency visits and spending in cooler areas, raise both metrics in moderate climates, and increase visits but cut spending in the hottest zones. Overall, the model predicts an 18 million rise in emergency department visits, a $55 billion reduction in spending, and a net decline of 2.5 million deaths through 2075.