Study reveals massive undercount of COVID deaths worldwide and links to institutional strength
Researchers from Hebrew University analyzed mortality data from 134 jurisdictions and found official COVID death counts were far lower than excess-mortality estimates, with underreporting common especially in countries with weaker institutions.
Hebrew University scholars Ariel Karlinsky and Moses Shayo examined mortality records from 134 countries, contrasting official COVID-19 death tallies with excess-mortality estimates. Their findings suggest the pandemic caused about 12.47 million deaths, far exceeding the 5.08 million. They estimate that 45% to 55% of the surveyed governments misreported the figures, with underreporting far outweighing overreporting.
Statistical capacity explained only a small portion of the variation; instead, nations with robust institutional checks, higher education, and widespread internet use tended to report more accurately. Higher misreporting rates were also observed in states with communist histories and those holding elections amid the crisis. The study highlights that gaps may stem from limited testing and registration, not solely deliberate deception, and calls for caution when using official statistics for policy decisions.
Why it matters
Accurate death counts are essential for public-health policy, resource allocation, and accountability of governments.
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