Study Shows Canada Falling Further Behind U.S. in Economic Growth
A Fraser Institute analysis finds that Canada’s per-capita GDP and median incomes have lagged increasingly behind the United States since 1999.
According to a new study by the Fraser Institute, Canada’s economic performance has trailed that of the United States for more than two decades. In 1999, the United States enjoyed a per-capita GDP advantage of roughly CA$10,766, a gap that more than doubled by 2024. Median employment income differences followed a similar pattern, expanding from CA$6,126 in 2010 to CA$8,663 in 2024.
The authors attribute part of the slowdown to faster growth of government-sector jobs in Canada, which has reduced the share of private-sector employment from 81.2% to 78.5% over the period. Meanwhile, U.S. private-sector employment rose slightly, keeping its share above 86%. Productivity growth further diverged, with the United States achieving a 67.9% increase since 1999 compared with Canada’s 26.7%. The study concludes that Canada has missed opportunities for economic advancement, especially after 2014, and is losing ground relative to its southern neighbor.
Why it matters
The findings reveal why Canada’s prosperity is lagging behind the U.S., informing policy debates on growth and trade.
How this story developed
- Aug 30 Trump uses AI video to claim rename of Lake Ontario amid Canada trade feud
- Aug 31 Trump warned the duty on Canadian automobiles will rise to 50% on Jan. 1 and offered tariff relief to firms that relocate to the United States.
- Sep 1 Apple Maps now lists Lake Ontario under the name "Lake America," matching a recent change made by Google Maps.
- Sep 3 Apple Maps switched to the new lake name for U.S. users.
- Sep 3 MapQuest rose to No. 1 in the U.S. App Store after refusing to rename the lake.
- Sep 6 President Donald Trump signed an order to change the name of Lake Ontario to "Lake America," a move that only obliges U.S. federal agencies and has limited effect elsewhere.
- Sep 6 Ontario Premier Doug Ford commissioned a $25,000 bilingual sign affirming the lake’s historic name.
- Sep 7 The order has led to temporary updates on mapping platforms and diplomatic irritation from Canada.
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