Study Shows War Initiators Lose Majority of 20th-Century Conflicts
An analysis of fifteen 20th-century conventional wars finds that the side that started each conflict lost ten, won three and tied two.
Drawing on a classroom study of fifteen conventional wars from the 20th century, the author reports that the party that launched each conflict lost ten times, secured victory three times and saw a tie in two instances. Among the ten losses, half culminated in the overthrow of the initiating government. The analysis highlights how wars tend to evolve in ways that exceed the initiator’s control, with factors such as miscalculation, prolonged duration, popular morale and external interventions reshaping outcomes.
Historical examples cited include World War I’s Central Powers, the Vietnam War under the Johnson administration, and the rapid escalation of World War II due to atrocities. Only the 1967 Arab-Israeli War and the First Indochina War deviated from the pattern of unexpected, costly conflicts. The author concludes that the odds of success for war-starting actors are consistently low.
Why it matters
Understanding the low success rate of war initiators warns policymakers against costly military gambles.
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