Study warns AI could boost fossil fuel output and raise emissions

New research appearing in npj Climate Action warns that artificial intelligence may amplify fossil-fuel production, potentially raising worldwide emissions to levels similar to major emitters. The study, authored by former Microsoft sustainability workers Will Alpine and Holly Alpine, models AI as a productivity tool used throughout the oil and gas value chain, from exploration to electricity generation. Their analysis suggests the resulting emissions could surpass the climate gains from AI-driven renewable energy advances.

The authors criticize tech firms for focusing only on operational emissions while ignoring the “enabled emissions” caused by AI-driven fossil-fuel expansion. They cite recent collaborations, such as Chevron’s plan to power data centers for Microsoft and use the resulting compute for its own AI workloads, as examples of the reinforcing link between AI and fossil fuels.