Sudan's army gains in North Kordofan may reshape upcoming political negotiations

In late July the Sudanese armed forces announced the recapture of several towns in North Kordofan, notably securing the Exports Road that connects Khartoum through Omdurman to the regional capital el-Obeid, thereby tightening pressure on Rapid Support Forces supply routes. The army reported that roughly 318 RSF personnel, including four officers, have defected, with additional groups of commanders and fighters surrendering in Kordofan and Khartoum.

Analysts link these defections to the army's advances, internal RSF issues and tribal dynamics, though they caution that the RSF is not yet collapsing. Parallel to the military push, army chief Abdel Fattah al-Burhan unveiled a political track offering temporary immunity and security guarantees for participants in an independent national dialogue, while refusing any peace that would empower RSF commander Mohamed Hamdan Dagalo.

Deputy chairman Malik Agar echoed the stance, saying negotiations can only begin after the RSF vacates cities, and that a military resolution remains the default option. The convergence of territorial gains, defections, and political overtures suggests the battlefield may soon influence the terms of Sudan’s next political phase.