Texas Governor Abbott Edges Ahead of Hinojosa in Latest Poll

ReconMR’s latest poll of Texas voters, conducted Oct. 5-8, places incumbent Governor Greg Abbott at 48% support versus 47% for Democratic state representative Gina Hinojosa, a reversal from the prior month’s results. The one-point lead falls inside the survey’s ±4.4% margin of error, so no definitive leader can be declared. Compared with September, the race has shifted five points toward Abbott, who now enjoys overwhelming backing among Republican respondents (92% to 5%).

Hinojosa retains strong leads among Democrats (94% to 2%) and independents (57% to 34%). Geographically, Abbott leads by 25 points in rural Texas, while Hinojosa outperforms him in Austin, Houston, San Antonio and South Texas, and the two are tied in the Dallas-Fort Worth area. Despite the close voting intentions, 62% of respondents still expect Abbott to win the election.