Texas governor and Senate contests appear dead-heat in new poll

Overton Insights partnered with the Texas Public Policy Foundation to release a poll indicating that Gov. Greg Abbott leads state Rep. Gina Hinojosa by a single point (46.9% to 45.8%) and that Rep. James Talarico edges Attorney General Ken Paxton by one point (44% to 43%). Both leads sit inside the margin of error, effectively making the contests statistical ties. Including partisan leaners nudges Abbott's advantage to 2.4 points, according to poll director Mark Cunningham, who highlighted the surprising closeness given Abbott's prior popularity.

The findings coincide with recent adjustments by the University of Virginia Center for Politics and the Cook Political Report, which have moved both races toward more competitive ratings. The poll also recorded a 44% approval rating for Donald Trump among Texas voters, suggesting his endorsement may now be a liability for GOP candidates. Additional surveys from Texas Public Opinion Research, Texas Southern University, and other firms echo the narrow gaps, underscoring the pivotal role of Hispanic and urban voters in the upcoming elections.