Texas Senate contest tightens as Democrat Talarico leads narrow poll over Paxton

Current polling suggests Democratic challenger James Talarico, a state representative with a far-left record, enjoys a marginal advantage over Republican Attorney General Ken Paxton in the Texas U.S. Senate race, a contest that may prove decisive for Senate control. The piece recalls earlier Democratic expectations that Texas would shift blue, which waned after Donald Trump's strong performance among Hispanic voters in 2020 and 2024.

While Talarico advocates radical policies on abortion, transgender rights, oil and gas, and border security, Paxton contends with ethical concerns stemming from a pending divorce, alleged corruption, and a recent extramarital trip to London. The author urges GOP operatives to run aggressive negative ads targeting Talarico’s positions and to seek financial support from MAGA-aligned super PACs to secure Paxton’s victory. The analysis highlights Texas’s blend of cultural conservatism and economic importance, making the race especially consequential.