Tolling the Strait of Hormuz Threatens Global Shipping Costs and Maritime Freedom

Iran is insisting on a fee of 5% to 7% per barrel of oil for vessels crossing the Strait of Hormuz, a demand that could yield nearly $20 billion annually and may extend to other cargoes such as natural gas and containers. Experts argue that once one nation monetises a strategic passage, others are likely to follow, targeting the Straits of Malacca, Gibraltar and even the Bosporus, turning natural chokepoints into revenue streams.

Michelle Brouhard, head of policy and geopolitical risk at Kpler, contends that this trend signals the end of the centuries-old doctrine of free navigation, ushering in higher shipping costs and broader inflation. Shipping insurers are already threatening to drop coverage for vessels that pay such tolls, though they cannot stop the fees from being imposed. Regional governments, including Malaysia, Indonesia and Morocco, see the prospect of tolls as a way to boost national income, while analysts like Bob McNally and Gregory Brew suggest Iran may ultimately accept a voluntary payment scheme from Gulf neighbours rather than heavy-handed charges. The overall effect could reshape international maritime law, increase prices for a wide range of goods, and accelerate onshoring of industrial production.