Tropical warm-pool heating linked to temporary slowdown in Antarctic ice loss

Over the 2021-2023 period, the Antarctic ice sheet’s net mass loss decelerated because East Antarctica experienced a pronounced gain of ice in the Queen Mary Land and Wilkes Land sectors, while West Antarctica continued to lose mass. The study attributes this gain to an unusually persistent warming of the tropical warm pool, which generated a stationary Rossby-wave train that propagated toward high southern latitudes. This wave train produced a high-pressure anomaly over East Antarctica, strengthening poleward moisture transport and atmospheric-river activity sourced mainly from the mid-latitude Indian Ocean.

Observations from GRACE, ERA5, and ice-core records align with the timing of the precipitation surge. Sensitivity experiments with atmospheric general-circulation models reproduced the dipole circulation and precipitation response only when the warm-pool warming was imposed, indicating its central role. The authors note that such warm-pool events recur roughly once per decade and that the recent ice-gain is likely temporary, not a sign of a sustained, warming-driven moistening of Antarctica.